全球暖化已無回頭路？

[{"selector":"#anim-bca3c4e1-e9b7-4561-bd0e-bbed68dd43bc","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"both","duration":1401,"delay":101,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":true,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":255,"g":255,"b":255}},"type":"shape","x":26,"y":0,"width":360,"height":617,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"mask":{"type":"grid-4"},"id":"8de785a5-9d22-46db-97ad-ae0e46f3320f"},"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.77, 0, 0.175, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4ff523c6-c481-494a-bd92-7ca9d85eaae9","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 150px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":1400,"delay":250,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.77, 0, 0.175, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-597f7a83-2dcc-4384-8be5-4650f6c45cf7","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":300,"delay":750,"direction":"normal","element":{"x":55,"y":95,"width":308,"height":290,"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":true,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.5,"textAlign":"center","scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"type":"text","id":"be108bc9-3a51-48c4-b495-24be6163e44c","content":"全球暖化已無回頭路？\n氣候變遷研究爭點整理","fontSize":52,"padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"marginOffset":-24.284000000000006},"easing":"linear"}] 全球暖化已無回頭路？ 氣候變遷研究爭點整理

[{"selector":"#anim-a92732d9-005e-4807-9ed8-8668b0e88717","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0}] [{"selector":"#anim-33f3ca16-464c-42f1-8042-d477639efc32","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0}] 2020年11月12日一篇發布在知名科學期刊的研究指稱，就算立刻停止排放溫室氣體，地球仍會繼續暖化，引起科學界討論。 期刊原文：Randers, J and Goluke, U. (2020).“An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020.” Scientific Reports , 10: 18456.

這是研究作者想討論的核心問題。 全球暖化已經通過「不可回復」的臨界點了嗎？

[{"selector":"#anim-b2959eff-7541-4cf3-8dd0-8e87c39c7a6e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -311.11113%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] 作者用自己設計的簡化模型，模擬溫室氣體如何影響目前與未來的氣候。

[{"selector":"#anim-10c71319-d854-49c1-a101-1cfbe4a5255b","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-114.34978%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-28731689-89fc-433b-ac7c-5a762412210a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-108.88252%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] 作者設計的模型名為地球氣候解釋模型（ESCIMO），透過簡化數據，能更快獲得計算結果。 ESCIMO MODEL

[{"selector":"#anim-defc7343-31ab-46f8-9157-cb8b8c659c11","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-111.98157%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-dda7cdca-5bc6-4463-bac0-c6818a4157ba","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0}] 作者模擬兩個情境： 1. 2100年停止人為溫室氣體排放 2.立即停止人為溫室氣體排放 ESCIMO MODEL

[{"selector":"#anim-43c478d7-b2ec-4d51-9458-49e0317b86dc","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 100px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":700,"delay":900,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9ddd168a-ced2-4cdf-a04f-31af659939c5","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":300,"delay":900,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":true,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":36,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.2,"textAlign":"left","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":58,"y":381,"width":296,"height":214,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"id":"664a5db3-3365-48f6-88be-486f45f882e1","content":"兩個情境都顯示：\n2500年，全球平均增溫約攝氏3度，平均海平面上升超過2.5公尺。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] 兩個情境都顯示： 2500年，全球平均增溫約攝氏3度，平均海平面上升超過2.5公尺。

[{"selector":"#anim-d3b634c2-046e-4c8a-86ac-72a901b4a103","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(115.48386%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2adbbba8-4c23-4a66-add3-1bf369de4feb","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-41e0888e-d779-412c-ad78-1ec3092f685a","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8c7b5173-028d-4db1-86fd-6546fca01621","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1101,"direction":"normal","element":{"x":54,"y":430,"width":310,"height":103,"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"type":"text","id":"31272720-81e0-416c-b7e6-870d7c68bf81","content":"作者解釋這是因為永凍土融化會釋放二氧化碳與甲烷，使地球持續增溫。","fontSize":27,"padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0}},"easing":"linear"}] 作者解釋這是因為永凍土融化會釋放二氧化碳與甲烷，使地球持續增溫。

[{"selector":"#anim-139712ba-8326-4930-9a99-ef4ec3bf3bbb","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -20px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":800,"delay":800,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.77, 0, 0.175, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d2189aa8-5537-478b-9566-1e39bed271ba","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1101,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":27,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":38,"y":406,"width":330,"height":139,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"id":"4c969df4-d3df-4f0f-ae0f-e6a7ac6bcc6b","content":"地球增溫擴大永凍土融化範圍，釋放更多溫室氣體，形成自我融化的循環。因此作者認為我們已跨越臨界點。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c5a71749-8142-4a2a-8d50-63f102d8a754","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] 地球增溫擴大永凍土融化範圍，釋放更多溫室氣體，形成自我融化的循環。因此作者認為我們已跨越臨界點。

但氣候科學家不這麼認為，他們的看法是......

模型太簡化導致模擬結果落差太大。

[{"selector":"#anim-7b32616b-7b3f-4e7d-96e6-755d53526022","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -20px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-eda6f9a6-e91a-4523-898e-3544475fc785","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":400,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":24,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":43,"y":459,"width":246,"height":91,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"basedOn":"31272720-81e0-416c-b7e6-870d7c68bf81","id":"66bb78e5-8337-48e4-b2f6-e55e2d1629e3","content":"在使用更複雜的氣候模型調查這份研究結論前，不應該這樣宣傳。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-260ce663-835b-4e3f-8913-09502c370661","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":701,"delay":1301,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5207f802-8529-4f84-b22f-b187399f0ed7","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":700,"delay":1200,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3939f485-c24b-4774-a5e3-82a4c44fb40f","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110.52631%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":700,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0532ee93-c2be-43f9-9013-65d2f422eff8","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(116.12904%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":700,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1ba433e5-66e4-47fc-b706-16800873c00c","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-100%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] 布萊恩．霍斯金斯 在使用更複雜的氣候模型調查這份研究結論前，不應該這樣宣傳。 VIEW MORE 倫敦帝國大學格蘭瑟 氣候變遷研究所所長

[{"selector":"#anim-74d63957-4436-49b4-ae1f-b5e4572e4785","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -20px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7596276a-2fa8-4c67-969d-d91f386234bb","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":400,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":24,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":58,"y":437,"width":238,"height":123,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"basedOn":"31272720-81e0-416c-b7e6-870d7c68bf81","id":"c637f99c-24de-4d2f-90dd-730e70c8a6b3","content":"這個結果來自單一的模型，且不像一般氣候模型經過嚴格的交叉檢查和測試。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c3c86401-fa80-43e2-b086-8b9bd28ac9b2","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":701,"delay":1301,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-982df2cf-625e-4d0f-9db9-1850d5bb5680","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":700,"delay":1200,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6542ee66-c495-4ada-aea9-ccec63b70124","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 199.78808%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-646e8cda-75e8-4a42-bb02-6bff0a7a1d38","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 475.61316%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":700,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-cb50293e-d9b3-4533-818f-8d112bd7d1a2","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 1532.82845%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] 馬克． 馬斯林 這個結果來自單一的模型，且不像一般氣候模型經過嚴格的交叉檢查和測試。 VIEW MORE 倫敦大學學院氣候學教授

[{"selector":"#anim-ae862e55-ccb6-4d20-a257-d15c7bf02a97","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -20px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-860da202-3ba3-4a2d-8e3b-98944fc1b0e5","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":400,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":24,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":37,"y":427,"width":247,"height":155,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"basedOn":"31272720-81e0-416c-b7e6-870d7c68bf81","id":"036f99b8-8ef2-4700-b0bc-0200a34eba3e","content":"最先進的模型可以更細緻的模擬從永凍土釋放的碳，這個模型未妥善控制永凍土融化和反饋的過程。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-04b48528-e625-443a-a345-e5a703e6c12b","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":701,"delay":1301,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-73aa7ca7-0684-4f9b-a26a-c82710143795","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":700,"delay":1200,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-804be8e9-4e55-4151-94d7-77f98552bd8a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -99.78808%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2c931a34-5f45-499d-8ea2-d6c00f94c558","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -880.04566%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":700,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-01e6dbc0-6dc3-47d5-b70b-35766dcf8c52","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":1402,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] 勞拉． 雷維爾 最先進的模型可以更細緻的模擬從永凍土釋放的碳，這個模型未妥善控制永凍土融化和反饋的過程。 VIEW MORE 坎特伯雷大學 環境物理系副教授

[{"selector":"#anim-dc9c4b4a-fdf4-45db-b41d-d79a81772b73","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -20px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ace63e47-1855-4c76-9716-ebf260589822","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":400,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":24,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":49,"y":448,"width":235,"height":123,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"basedOn":"31272720-81e0-416c-b7e6-870d7c68bf81","id":"a4ee5cc0-1685-4719-99b6-655973cbd95e","content":"雖然這樣的模型對於概念推論很有用，但預測結果必須受到極大的質疑。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bc3922b2-7cb1-45e9-883c-282b9b7eeeb7","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":701,"delay":1301,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-251da603-c78c-4675-9e12-865bd65c78a8","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":700,"delay":1200,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bac41c2c-dc95-4598-a42d-25efa72f0937","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-100%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d835b2c4-f5cd-4d57-9578-5ab940bb0da1","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-170.17543%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":700,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c0372403-ae3c-42e3-b128-927a6feb9b16","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-178.34103%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":700,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)"}] 麥克．曼恩 雖然這樣的模型對於概念推論很有用，但預測結果必須受到極大的質疑。 VIEW MORE 賓州州立大學 氣象學家

[{"selector":"#anim-ab3f4585-2773-4996-8269-694faa0f6715","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -20px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2d18921f-bd9c-46f8-9774-b9f12e0b4cd6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":400,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":24,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":49,"y":443,"width":235,"height":123,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"basedOn":"31272720-81e0-416c-b7e6-870d7c68bf81","id":"7ac6e10c-6226-43b6-bdd7-f0f17ff156d3","content":"這個模型高估了水蒸氣濃度與甲烷的升溫潛力，這會使模型推測溫度異常升高。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-572c8d87-b63b-409f-bedc-a09d743249a6","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":701,"delay":1301,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-13be0b8b-2b16-4fdd-93ae-65fb41dbb570","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":700,"delay":1200,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9bd7f7bd-d902-4773-ba61-e9255f9aa0dd","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(100.00000%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5940d32b-0ad8-41e4-be06-f4f0393a2c8d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-054004e1-0f20-4b4d-9237-96de0b41a512","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-22bddb0f-9b51-4403-9cf6-e0b1362de28a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(111.05992%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-93533b13-0204-46b1-b301-382bd831f564","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-aaf3b819-f73c-4ad7-b427-adae6fafed1e","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6a0423c6-c12f-434b-9069-875a8b463819","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110.52631%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2d5645d0-a6de-4cab-9b2e-4002f1e12e09","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d6c285c1-2674-401a-9c76-47c476115c42","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] 凱特． 馬維爾 這個模型高估了水蒸氣濃度與甲烷的升溫潛力，這會使模型推測溫度異常升高。 VIEW MORE 美國太空總署戈達德 太空研究所氣候科學家

錯誤理解永凍土的融解模式。

[{"selector":"#anim-bffa7833-a835-470a-87aa-ed97518663a9","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -20px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":500,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bb2b025a-95c6-447f-bc00-f03b2692469f","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":400,"delay":1150,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":false,"backgroundTextMode":"NONE","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":24,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196}},"lineHeight":1.37,"textAlign":"initial","padding":{"horizontal":0,"vertical":0},"x":46,"y":77,"width":249,"height":123,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"basedOn":"31272720-81e0-416c-b7e6-870d7c68bf81","id":"d15db28e-452a-4f37-9de4-c710285040dd","content":"永凍土融化（melt）並非正確的科學用語，永凍土會融解（thaw）但不會融化（melt）。","type":"text"},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-de2b6c59-7d96-489d-bf30-dec31357cabc","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":701,"delay":1301,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-dcfb4fce-dbe6-4156-b8ad-4033fa6e5566","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-110%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"both","duration":700,"delay":1200,"direction":"normal","easing":"cubic-bezier(0.165, 0.84, 0.44, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-45bb876b-8a4d-4ad1-8171-381455d6f4df","keyframes":[{"transform":"rotate(-540deg) scale(0.1)","opacity":0},{"transform":"none","opacity":1}],"delay":0,"duration":1000,"fill":"both","iterations":1,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] 理查德．貝茨 VIEW MORE 永凍土融化（melt）並非正確的科學用語，永凍土會融解（thaw）但不會融化（melt）。 艾希特大學氣候影響研究負責人兼主席兼英國氣象局研究員

[{"selector":"#anim-bdba83e0-2515-46e5-981f-11a86b552797","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(3)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0}] [{"selector":"#anim-079f78f5-8210-482f-b544-0c74a8d191a2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":300,"delay":900,"direction":"normal","element":{"opacity":100,"flip":{"vertical":false,"horizontal":false},"rotationAngle":0,"lockAspectRatio":true,"backgroundTextMode":"FILL","font":{"family":"Roboto","service":"fonts.google.com","fallbacks":["sans-serif"],"weights":[100,300,400,500,700,900],"styles":["italic","regular"],"variants":[[0,100],[1,100],[0,300],[1,300],[0,400],[1,400],[0,500],[1,500],[0,700],[1,700],[0,900],[1,900]],"metrics":{"upm":2048,"asc":1900,"des":-500,"tAsc":1536,"tDes":-512,"tLGap":102,"wAsc":1946,"wDes":512,"xH":1082,"capH":1456,"yMin":-555,"yMax":2163,"hAsc":1900,"hDes":-500,"lGap":0}},"fontSize":30,"backgroundColor":{"color":{"r":196,"g":196,"b":196,"a":0.7}},"lineHeight":1.2,"textAlign":"left","padding":{"horizontal":10,"vertical":10},"x":48,"y":442,"width":321,"height":161,"scale":100,"focalX":50,"focalY":50,"id":"15dd6ffc-0c52-49d1-a7b5-040daa134c5d","content":"專家們這樣說是因為永凍土是指：至少連續兩年保持在攝氏0度以下的所有地球物質。","type":"text","marginOffset":0},"easing":"linear"}] [{"selector":"#anim-be59b6d3-50a0-446f-b307-6e52bfd72f12 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(4)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0}] 專家們這樣說是因為永凍土是指：至少連續兩年保持在攝氏0度以下的所有地球物質。

這表示永凍土可能不含水或冰。因此專指從固體轉為液體的融化不適合形容永凍土融解。

與較複雜模型所推估的最新結果不符。

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雖然該研究作者也歡迎科學家們一同討論，但爭議點在於本篇研究的觀點，可能直接影響社會。

[{"selector":"#anim-2918247d-a6d4-4f0f-bb20-4a64e9bc59ec","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(3)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":1000,"delay":0}] [{"selector":"#anim-54a483f9-980b-4111-b0a4-5bf22edadfde","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(115.23810%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ab8c6d8f-31e4-45f6-a69d-16548600571b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0ba9cedd-7180-4fa2-913a-54c700b81f67","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2bd116a5-cde0-4112-a4d5-56100236405e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(122.05881%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5ff1c66b-c38d-4491-ba85-972f6656af02","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8730f45b-f2b6-4680-a9d3-d7b1888ac148","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] 在沒有足夠的證據支持下，告訴世界我們注定要失敗，這不負責任，也難以推動減緩暖化的緊急行動。 《氣候多數》（ The Climate Majority ）作者 里歐．巴拉 西

[{"selector":"#anim-6200d39d-beae-4045-8473-2956405e9081","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(119.93243%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ef4f600d-47e5-4b8a-a964-e085ca16bdff","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"fill":"both","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d54328e6-0779-4c74-a58e-f473d64d98e1","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"fill":"forwards","duration":600,"delay":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)"}] 新興科技媒體中心整理製作 審稿專家： 臺灣大學氣候變遷與永續學程專案助理教授 謝宜桓